“You’ll find superstition a contagious thing. Some people let it get the better of them.”—Curt Siodmak
How Do I Know What I Know?
When I was eight I watched an episode of Buck Rogers and the 25th Century. In this episode, an evil Vorvon—a ludicrous space vampire—drained the soul from its victim’s body through strategically placed pinky and forefingers. I look back and think to myself: why was I so frightened by this? I suppose it had something to do with the fact I was eight years old and struggled to distinguish between fiction and reality, and like most eight-year-olds, I didn’t have an adequately developed Baloney Detection it.
The idea of Vorvons actually existing had me wrapping a blanket around my neck for the next 20 years. I didn’t do this because at the age of 28 I actually believed space vampires existed. I did this because during some formative years I believed and, as it turns out, the long habit of thinking a thing true gives the object of that faith a superficial appearance of being right.[1] Fear, in a sense, is habit-forming. There is a surprisingly large number of habits, instead of thoughts, bouncing around our minds we think are facts.
We know (especially as adults) space vampires do not exist. Yet, I wonder: why are so many of us incapable of applying this same skepticism to all of our beliefs? Why are we selectively critical? For instance, why does Tom Cruise accept, as a Scientologist, that some ancient galactic overlord named Xenu existed while at the same time doubting the Easter Bunny exists?[2] Why is one thing trustworthy and the other ridiculous?
How do I know what I know?
For any belief to be true it must be supportable. For example, if I go to the dinner table I assume nobody will take my chair away before I sit down. Also, I assume my chair won’t break. These two simple beliefs form a chain of dependency, i.e. a chain where each link supports and confirms every other link. The links in this case are supported primarily by logic: most people I’ve met aren’t jerks and most chairs I’ve come across can bear my weight; therefore, I sit in certainty.
As useful and necessary as logic is it can be used to justify irrational things. Human beings are great at systematically creating complex systems of thinking to support nonsense. The Catholic Church, for instance, argued the surface of the moon was completely smooth like a billiard ball because no sin had ever taken place there. The earth by comparison, with its mountains, valleys, etc. and other imperfections was the product of the presence of sin. That same Church also required people believe human males had one fewer rib than females so our skeletons would match nicely with the story of Adam and Eve in Genesis.
Let’s further explore humankind’s seemingly unlimited capacity to believe in nonsense—let’s look at Western astrology.[3]
Astrology is used by approximately 10% of us as a daily guide how to live, what to decide and so on. People who believe astrology is valid make a number of unqualified assumptions.[4]
1). Astrology is an ancient science.
2). There are only five total planets in the universe.
3). The sun revolves around the Earth.
4). The Earth is flat.
5). The Earth is surrounded by a crystal sphere.
6). The Earth is at the center of the universe.
7). Stars and planets are gods orbiting around the Earth.
8). There are four “earthly” elements: air, water, fire and earth.
9). There is a fifth element called aether.
10). Stars create constellations and each constellation is associated with a planet.
So let’s take a peek and see what’s going to happen to me today. If the predictions made by my horoscope are accurate I can use this “knowledge” to enjoy some success or enjoy some other benefit. In order to do this, I need to first look up my horoscope.[5] I’m going to go to a reputable sounding website called www.astrology.com. I was born on June 16, 1971. This makes me a Gemini and my corresponding element is “air” (though I’m partial to “fire”).
Pay special attention to the nature of the claims made by the website’s authors below.
According to astrology, the “air” element signifies the following about me:
- I use my mind to make sense of my life. Who among us doesn’t do this?
- I am detached, aloof, remote and cool. Everyone possesses these qualities to varying degrees. Why would someone born on May 21st (Geminis are born between May 21st and June 21st) possess these qualities in greater amounts than, say, someone born on May 20th?
- I talk my way through feelings instead of allowing myself to fully experience emotions. This is patently absurd. If anything the opposite is true: I would like to experience emotions a lot less than I actually do.
- I am flexible, an excellent communicator, storyteller, interpreter and journalist. Well, I certainly like flattery—so sure, I am an excellent communicator, etc.
- I am curious. Curiosity is a quality shared by every human being on the planet.
Both fortune tellers and horoscope authors use a technique called “cold reading”[6] to make people believe what they’re told about the future.
Horoscope for a Gemini on August 20, 2010
From: www.astrology.com/horoscopes/gemini/daily-horoscope/today
You may not be able to rely on friends or colleagues as much as you would like today, and that could mean that you need to go it alone for a big presentation or purchase you’d rather share.
Firstly, the horoscope predicts I have either friends or colleagues. This prediction is what is called a high probability hit. Everyone has either a friend or a colleague. Thus, this is hardly revelation.
Secondly, my horoscope predicts I might need to go it alone on a big presentation or to complete a big purchase. Interestingly, at the time I wrote this article I was finishing the deck for my house and I had to fork out a couple hundred bucks for materials to complete a railing. I guess horoscopes really are quite accurate. Then again the word “might” implies I may or may not do something. So if I do what it says then the horoscope’s author can claim a “hit” and if I don’t do it then they can also claim they made a successful prediction.
Win, win.
The fundamental problem with language used by astrologers, and pseudo-scientists[7] in general, is they hide behind ambiguous terms and concepts, i.e. terms/concepts we can interpret in more than one way. Pseudo-scientists claim they “know stuff” but once you get passed appearances their talk constitutes little more than the intellectual equivalent of hand waving distracting us from thinking clearly. With thinking clearly in mind, let’s examine the foundational dependencies of astrology itself to determine whether or not there’s some validity to it.
Astrology is a science. If astrology makes accurate predictions about a person’s future then it can be considered a science.[8] But for astrology to be considered a science its claims must be capable of being falsified.[9] If we believe in the value of intellectual honesty, we cannot just accept astrology’s predictions are valid on face value. We have to test these claims whenever possible. The ability to falsify a claim is ultimately what sets apart random claims (pseudo-science) from genuine or real science. If I do not attempt to falsify or test a claim, then by implication any claim about the future made by an astrologer could be considered as valid as the next. For example, I could ask my cat to help me answer a question like “Should I start a new career?” by using the yes/no feature found on an Ouija board. If the astrologer’s technique isn’t based on something real or demonstrable, and if astrologers are just using guessing and cold-reading, then my cat’s advice is just as trustworthy as the world’s most qualified and experienced horoscopist. In short astrology does not constitute a science so much as a belief system.
There are only five planets in the universe. Unfortunately for astrology, three additional planets were found after this belief system was invented, e.g. Uranus in 1690, Neptune in 1846 and Pluto in 1930. Pluto actually was downgraded to a dwarf planet as of 2008 (and as of 2016 there’s evidence of yet another dwarf planet beyond that);[10] moreover, as of 2016 astrophysicists have discovered an additional 3,431 exo-planets orbiting distant stars. Astrology was constructed upon the idea there were only five planets in the universe; and over time our ideas, our models, have improved and changed because of the use of real science. If astrology is a real science, one assumes its practitioners would try to change its claims to account for the new understanding; however, they do not do this and instead ignore the new information and carry on as before.
An astrologer could counter with the claim distant planets do not affect our lives; rather, it’s the nearby planets we have to worry about. However, this claim begs the question: why does a star 4.6 million light years away affect our future but a shiny ball of gas 100 million light years away does not? Is it gravity? If gravity is the true factor then the earth itself—the most massive and closest object affecting people directly—should have a stronger influence on us compared to any star. Nonetheless, astrologers will invoke special pleading[11] to prove their case, i.e. they just assert near stars affect us while distant ones do not.
For example, a preacher named Harold Camping claimed back in May of 2012 that the Rapture[12] was coming and he and his followers would be saved and the rest of us would be left to experience a living hell on earth. May rolled around and the prophesied Rapture didn’t take place. Big surprise. Camping’s followers, however, invoked special pleading by insisting the prophecy had actually come true, i.e. it wasn’t a physical rapture but a spiritual one (whatever that means). They also pushed judgement day to a later date not once but twice.
So is there an empirically verifiable distance from the Earth where celestial objects no longer affect our lives? I really see no difference between believing that when Mercury is in your constellation you tend to be angrier with the belief that when the exo-planet OGLE-TR-56 is in Libra you are destined to become a shoplifter. How do you falsify or disprove these claims? How do you test it? You can’t. Again, that’s why astrology is not a science and is, arguably, just wishful thinking.
The sun revolves around the Earth. The ancients believed and taught the sun revolved around the earth. Astrology was built upon this flawed cosmology. Thanks to the work of Copernicus and Galileo (and four centuries of science and observation) we can with great confidence assert that the Earth in fact orbits the Sun.
The Earth is flat. The ancients likewise believed the earth was flat; however, people have known the Earth is in fact a sphere since at least the 4th century BCE. Astrology still operates under the assumption that the Earth is flat.
The Earth is surrounded by a crystal sphere. If by “crystal sphere” you mean an atmosphere made up of gases like nitrogen, argon, oxygen, helium, hydrogen, etc. then this assumption is valid. However, if by “crystal” you mean something transparent but solid you’re sadly mistaken. We have never had to fix the earth’s “windshield” the last time a space shuttle or satellite went up into space or returned. According to genuine atmospheric science, the atmosphere is better described as an ocean of air as opposed to a crystal sphere. Astrology still operates under the assumption there’s a crystal sphere.
The Earth is at the center of the universe. Observations have determined that the Earth is not even at the center of our solar system let alone the galaxy let alone the universe. In fact, by definition there is no center of the universe at all as defined. Since the Big Bang the universe is expanding in all directions at the same time (making locating a central locus point a moving target). Putting it bluntly the Big Bang was not a conventional explosion (like dynamite); and the universe is not expanding into anything. Space itself is literally just getting more expansive (the balloon is getting bigger). Astrology still operates under the assumption the Earth is at the center of a non-expanding universe, i.e. stars and galaxies are fixed permanently in their positions (which they are not).
Stars and planets are gods orbiting the Earth. Firstly, gravity plays a central role when it comes to planetary motion; that is, smaller objects (having less gravity) are attracted to larger objects (that have more gravity). This is a simple model and it is accurate and reflects what’s happening “out there.” Ancient astrologers didn’t have any scientific understanding of how gravity works; moreover, they assumed that gods were at work “out there” in the universe directing events. The ancients were wrong both on gravity/planetary motion and on the existence of the gods. Astrologers still factor in the will of the gods—the temperament of the individual planets—into the creation of their horoscopes.
There are four “earthly” elements: air, water, fire and earth. The Greek philosopher Aristotle supported the idea that four “earthly” elements comprised everything in existence. He even posited a fifth element called the “aether” into existence. As of 2016 there are 118 elements on the Periodic Table of Elements.
Stars create constellations and each constellation has a planet. Stars are not fixed in place like the ancients believed; rather, stars move relative to us and we move relative to them. Stars just appear to be fixed in place because of their great distance from us.[13]
The ancient were creative. They connected the stars (dots) and invented pictures in the sky reflecting their mythologies and gods.[14] The patterns we find in the sky are completely meaningless; and if we went to a different distant solar system and stood on a planet looking out into the night sky the arrangement of the stars would change; instead of seeing either the Big or Little Dipper we might make out a Small and/or Large Fork in the strange sky. Ultimately, these meaningless night time patterns—these constellations—are as meaningful, and have as much to do with shaping your destiny (if destiny itself even exists), as flecks of red paint randomly splayed on a white wall by a playing child. Nonetheless, people continue reading meaning and significance into constellations: we are wonderful story tellers; we are emotional by nature and prefer living in a world full of magic.
I’ve asked students in my classes whether they think psychics are real. Our culture seems to be friendly to paranormal claims even though there isn’t a single shred of evidence supporting the claim anyone can actually read minds, predict the future, or move objects with their minds. Yet, if we believe psychics can read minds it doesn’t matter if they actually can—our magical thinking endows these individuals with paranormal[15] power. As a civilization, and as individuals, we need to be willing to think more deeply about the things we think about. When we think clearly, we see through the magic, and finally see the world and reality as they really are (not as we want them to be).
[1] I am alluding to Thomas Paine and something he wrote in his book Common Sense in 1776: “A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.”
[2] According to Scientology the origin of all our psychological problems is the result of an alien warlord named Xenu murdering billions of his people on earth 75 million years ago. This secret wisdom is only shared with the highest level Scientology members who have to pay to progress through the various levels; it’s usually a good indicator you’re dealing with nonsense if money is being exchanged for initiation or privileges. By contrast Plato’s teacher, Socrates, never accepted any money whatsoever for teaching.
[3] Western astrology is only one of many, e.g. Burmese, Chinese, Electional, Horay, Horoscopic, Natal, Indian, Sri Lankan, Tibetan, Celtic, Judicial, Mayan astrology, etc. are all forms of astrology. This list is by no means exhaustive.
[4] All of us have to make assumptions about the world; however, there’s a difference between a qualified and unqualified assumption. When it comes to a qualified assumption we make a point of testing claims against physical reality, logic and/or experience. In the case of unqualified assumptions, the individual makes no attempt whatsoever to test a claim but support the assumption by invoking “magical reasoning”, i.e. it just works!
[5] Astrology is inconsistently applied, i.e. go to four different horoscope sites and you’ll find four different readings. There’s nothing “systematic” about astrology; it’s just one of those habits people in the West inherit and mindlessly adopt.
[6] A set of techniques used by fortune-tellers to imply they know a lot more about people than they actually do. Without prior knowledge, a practiced cold-reader can quickly obtain a great deal of information by analyzing the person’s body language, age, clothing or fashion, hairstyle, gender, sexual orientation, religion, race/ethnicity, level of education, manner of speech, place of origin, etc. Cold readings commonly employ high-probability guesses, quickly picking up on signals as to whether their guesses are in the right direction or not, then emphasizing and reinforcing chance connections and quickly moving on from missed guesses; it is key to note that people listening to a cold-reader (psychic, fortune-teller, horoscope writer) tend to ignore the many misses (errors) and a tendency to remember only the hits.
[7] Pseudo-scientists create systematic or elaborate systems of knowledge without actually proving that what they’re selling or telling us is either accurate or true. Astrologers claim our destinies are shaped by the positioning of the stars without providing anything resembling genuine proof as to why this is so. Acupuncturists and homeopaths alike argue “strategically placed needles” or “new water” can cure diseases. If this actually was the case, and acupuncture or homeopathy actually achieved these things, doesn’t it stand to reason no one would die from serious diseases? Yet, here we are, still dying despite possessing all of this mystical knowledge. This is one of the reasons why it is important for a skeptic to practice “systematic doubt.” When we doubt systematically we are less likely to make errors in our own thinking or in the thought of others.
[8] Science is defined as a systematically organized body of knowledge; it is from the Latin scienza which literally means “know”.
[9] We use the scientific method to test physical reality against beliefs; therefore, we must be capable of falsifying or disproving knowledge claims. For this reason a question like “Does God exist?” isn’t a scientific question. This is because we cannot prove or falsify it the question; moreover, we cannot falsify any of the claims made through astrology; it functions on the basis of “magic thinking” (it just works).
[10] http://www.space.com/34358-new-dwarf-planet-found-2014-uz224.html
[11] Special Pleading: a fallacious argument whereby the speaker deliberately ignores aspects that are unfavorable to their point of view.
[12] According to some Christian groups when Jesus returns all the believers will be transported directly to Heaven (so they won’t have to suffer God’s judgement on the world).
[13] The ancients did not have our knowledge about the size (or age) of the universe. They assumed stars were fixed in place because they did not appear to move. In fact all stars are moving through space, but they’re so far away we cannot easily see them move relative to one another. Think of it this way: picture yourself driving along a highway and watch how close objects appear to go by quickly while the more distant, and yet more distant, objects appear to pass by slowly. Now picture moving relative to an object that is millions of light years away. This object will not appear to move at all to us.
[14] Pareidolia is a psychological phenomenon involving a stimulus (an image or sound) wherein the mind perceives a familiar pattern of something where none actually exists, e.g. looking at randomly shaped clouds and seeing animals in them.
[15] Paranormal: denoting events or phenomenon such as telekinesis or clairvoyance that are beyond the scope of normal scientific understanding or our knowledge of the physical world as it actually exists.
Peasants & Emperors 